TENTitans
2-1
31
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
24 mph
13
CLEBrowns
2-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
48°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
14
4
0
25
Browns
3
3
0
7
13
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
416
Total Plays
50
87
Yards / Play
6.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
332
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
40/61(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.21
Rushing Yards
112
84
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
20
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.22
-11.06
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-4.90
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
45
40
Penalty EPA
-3.10
-6.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
15
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
24
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U