TENTitans
8-4
7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
012
ARICardinals
5-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
0
7
Cardinals
0
0
6
6
12
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
204
261
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
3.6
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.26
Passing Yards
139
125
Comp/Att
16/31(52%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.50
-0.30
Rushing Yards
65
136
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.29
--
Sacks
3
8
Sack Yards
-20
-53
Sack EPA
-3.34
-12.92
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
48
30
Penalty EPA
-9.38
-3.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-39
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+65.4
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
-43.2
Home QB Adjustment
-42.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
18
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
6
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
11
23
Turnover EPA / Game
7
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Cardinals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
30
23
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
28
23
Fumbles / Game
10
17
Turnover EPA / Game
5
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
26
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U