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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ chargers week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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TEN logo
TENTitans
0-1
10
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
85°F
8 mph
38
LACChargers
1-0
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
85°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
0
10
Chargers
14
3
7
14
38

Spread

LAC logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
212
416
Total Plays
40
75
Yards / Play
5.3
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.30
Passing Yards
--
268
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.50
Rushing Yards
38
148
Rush Attempts
10
39
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
9
27
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
11%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
1
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
50%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-1.17
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-5.01
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
59
41
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-5.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.6
53
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
11/06
2.8
72
11/10
-5.5
16
11/20
2.6
70
11/27
-3.7
27
12/05
9.9
97
12/11
5.1
82
12/18
7.1
91
12/24
-1.5
40
01/01
6.4
88
09/10
2.7
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Titans logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
26
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5

EPA

EPA / Play
28
9
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
23
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
22
32
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Chargers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23

EPA

EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
28
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
26
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
27
W
W
U
11/20
-6
L
P
U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-14
L
L
U
12/24
6
W
L
O
01/01
1
W
P
O
09/09
-21
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-11
L
L
O
11/27
-3
L
L
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
U
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-28
L
L
U
01/01
12
W
W
O
09/10
8
W
W
U