TENTitans
0-1
10
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
85°F
8 mph
38
LACChargers
1-0
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
85°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
0
10
Chargers
14
3
7
14
38
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
212
416
Total Plays
40
75
Yards / Play
5.3
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.30
Passing Yards
--
268
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.50
Rushing Yards
38
148
Rush Attempts
10
39
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
27
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
11%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
1
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
50%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-1.17
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-5.01
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
59
41
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-5.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
26
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
28
9
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
22
32
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
32
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U