TENTitans
4-4
35
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
76°F
6 mph
43
LACChargers
3-5
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
76°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
14
7
14
35
Chargers
9
10
8
4
31
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
476
Total Plays
62
73
Yards / Play
6.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
268
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.39
Rushing Yards
80
208
Rush Attempts
19
39
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
31
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
45%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
5
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.17
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.58
Penalties
8
14
Penalty Yards
57
107
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-9.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
11
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
25
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
18
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U