TENTitans
7-6
14
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
017
LACChargers
7-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
7
14
Chargers
7
0
0
10
17
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
365
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.13
Passing Yards
157
291
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.26
-0.18
Rushing Yards
127
74
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.48
-7.28
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-22
Sack EPA
-6.11
-6.74
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-5.60
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
26
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
12
28
EPA / Rush
17
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U