TENTitans
5-2
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
7 mph
20
KCChiefs
5-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
0
14
3
0
0
17
Chiefs
3
6
0
8
3
20
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
501
Total Plays
48
92
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.03
Passing Yards
57
422
Comp/Att
5/16(31%)
43/68(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.02
Rushing Yards
172
79
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
29
Passing 1st downs
3
23
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
9%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
19
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.78
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-24
Sack EPA
-2.71
-5.81
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
51
69
Penalty EPA
-3.94
-9.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model86.3%
Spread Pick
Titans+14.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+50.4
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+73.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-61.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
320.0
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
M. Willis
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-61.1
Value
Ptile
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
9
21
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
13
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U