TENTitans
7-6
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
1°F
5 mph
17
KCChiefs
10-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
1°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
12
19
Chiefs
14
3
0
0
17
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
316
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.12
Passing Yards
241
159
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.14
Rushing Yards
148
157
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.25
-4.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
-4.11
-1.62
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
25
40
Penalty EPA
-2.23
-4.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+25.6
Market Regression
+7.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27
EPA
EPA / Play
13
9
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
11
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
1
4
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
12
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
28
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U