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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ chiefs week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
7-6
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
1°F
5 mph
17
KCChiefs
10-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
1°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
12
19
Chiefs
14
3
0
0
17

Spread

TEN logo
+6

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
389
316
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
6.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.12
Passing Yards
241
159
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.14
Rushing Yards
148
157
Rush Attempts
29
28
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.25
-4.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
-4.11
-1.62
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
25
40
Penalty EPA
-2.23
-4.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+25.6
Market Regression
+8.4
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
10/02
-3.7
22
10/09
9.5
96
10/16
6.2
87
10/23
-0.2
46
10/27
6.2
87
11/06
6.3
88
11/13
7.5
91
11/20
1.2
58
11/27
5.9
86
12/11
-5.5
13
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
09/25
1.7
61
10/02
-1.9
34
10/16
0.2
50
10/23
2.3
67
10/30
-3.8
21
11/13
-5.1
15
11/20
5.0
83
11/27
-4.1
19
12/04
2.7
71
12/08
-0.4
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Titans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27

EPA

EPA / Play
13
9
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
11
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
1
4
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Chiefs logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4

EPA

EPA / Play
12
20
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
12
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
28
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-7
L
L
O
10/09
13
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/06
-8
L
L
O
11/13
22
W
W
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
6
W
L
O
12/11
3
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-29
L
L
O
10/16
16
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
P
U
10/30
16
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/20
-2
L
L
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
1
W
W
O
12/08
8
W
W
U