TENTitans
6-8
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
19°F
7 mph
34
KCChiefs
9-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
19°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
0
14
Chiefs
14
11
3
0
28
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
458
Total Plays
56
77
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.07
Passing Yards
213
306
Comp/Att
14/37(38%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.37
Rushing Yards
57
152
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.71
-8.37
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-5.07
-1.64
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
74
84
Penalty EPA
-6.24
-0.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+53.3
Home QB Adjustment
+32.0
Away QB Adjustment
-21.3
Market Regression
-8.8
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
32
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U