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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ chiefs week 16, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
6-8
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
19°F
7 mph
34
KCChiefs
9-5
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
19°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
0
14
Chiefs
14
11
3
0
28

Spread

KC logo
-4

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
270
458
Total Plays
56
77
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.07
Passing Yards
213
306
Comp/Att
14/37(38%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.37
Rushing Yards
57
152
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.71
-8.37
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-5.07
-1.64
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
74
84
Penalty EPA
-6.24
-0.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+53.3
Home QB Adjustment
+32.0
Away QB Adjustment
-21.3
Market Regression
-9.2
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

K. Collins headshot

K. Collins

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
0.1
50
09/27
-7.8
8
10/04
2.3
65
10/11
-3.2
29
10/18
-10.2
2
10/24
-0.3
47
11/14
-5.2
17
12/05
-8.9
5
12/09
7.8
93
12/19
-2.8
30
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Value
Ptile
10/10
-3.2
27
10/17
4.5
79
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-2.9
30
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
9.5
96
11/21
2.7
67
11/28
9.6
97
12/05
-2.2
34
12/19
-4.3
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Titans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16

EPA

EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
16
17
EPA / Rush
28
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Chiefs logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
32
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20

EPA

EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
7
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
7
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
7
W
W
O
10/18
27
W
W
U
10/24
18
W
W
O
10/31
-8
L
L
O
11/14
-12
L
L
O
11/21
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-20
L
L
U
12/05
-11
L
L
U
12/09
-2
L
W
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-4
L
W
O
10/24
22
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
U
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
-20
L
L
O
11/21
18
W
W
U
11/28
18
W
W
O
12/05
4
W
L
U
12/12
-31
L
L
U
12/19
14
W
W
U