TENTitans
9-7
22
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
10 mph
21
KCChiefs
10-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
12
22
Chiefs
14
7
0
0
21
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
325
Total Plays
66
53
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.06
Passing Yards
195
256
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.17
Rushing Yards
202
69
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
6.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
62%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.14
+5.09
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-3.02
-3.39
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
50
68
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-9.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+21.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
+19.5
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
11
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U