TENTitans
4-8
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
8-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
0
3
17
Colts
7
0
8
6
21
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
269
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
5.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.03
Passing Yards
259
171
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.19
Rushing Yards
97
98
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
-8.13
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-25
Sack EPA
-1.08
-5.60
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
70
43
Penalty EPA
-7.77
-6.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23
EPA
EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U