TENTitans
7-6
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
0-13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
6
0
7
13
Colts
3
0
8
10
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
287
Total Plays
76
51
Yards / Play
5.1
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.11
Passing Yards
322
--
Comp/Att
38/56(68%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.39
Rushing Yards
66
205
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
10
Passing 1st downs
18
2
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.14
-3.80
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.51
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
70
25
Penalty EPA
-5.44
-3.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model66.2%
Spread Pick
Colts+6.5
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,363
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-116.8
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
D. Orlovsky
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U