TENTitans
3-11
30
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
038
INDColts
6-8
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
8
15
30
Colts
0
24
14
0
38
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
458
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
5.3
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.18
Passing Yards
244
123
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
7/11(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.22
Rushing Yards
67
335
Rush Attempts
23
50
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.42
-5.55
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-2.83
-2.03
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
46
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-7.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+42.7
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-70.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+62.9
Market Regression
+7.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+62.9
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
17
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U