TENTitans
6-9
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
9-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
14
0
20
Colts
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
358
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.05
Passing Yards
290
257
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.12
Rushing Yards
51
101
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.24
-4.99
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-7
Sack EPA
-1.68
-1.54
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
58
25
Penalty EPA
-6.32
-1.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+23.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.6
Away QB Adjustment
-25.7
Market Regression
-5.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-25.7
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
4
22
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
26
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
7
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U