TENTitans
2-2
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
9 mph
16
MIADolphins
1-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
0
10
Dolphins
4
0
0
6
10
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
188
178
Total Plays
58
59
Yards / Play
3.2
3.0
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.34
Passing Yards
119
78
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
12/27(44%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
2.9
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.48
Rushing Yards
69
100
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
12
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
15%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.31
-10.62
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-22
-14
Sack EPA
-13.34
-1.92
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
77
23
Penalty EPA
-7.50
-5.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model59.8%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-1.0
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+110.6
Home QB Adjustment
-21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-131.8
Market Regression
+51.7
Final Difference
68.6
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-131.8
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
21
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
19
Rushing Yards / Game
9
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
11
23
Turnover EPA / Game
7
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
26
23
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
30
23
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U