TENTitans
3-6
37
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
78°F
20 mph
3
MIADolphins
4-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
78°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
14
4
7
6
31
Dolphins
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
255
Total Plays
60
56
Yards / Play
4.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.48
Passing Yards
116
201
Comp/Att
9/22(41%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.45
Rushing Yards
177
54
Rush Attempts
37
15
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-21.81
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-1.65
-2.59
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
39
67
Penalty EPA
-3.33
-4.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
28
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
32
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
19
31
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U