TENTitans
7-4
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
60°F
7 mph
35
PHIEagles
10-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
60°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
3
0
0
10
Eagles
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
453
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
3.9
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.22
Passing Yards
122
386
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.47
Rushing Yards
87
67
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-35
-5
Sack EPA
-10.53
-0.70
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
82
80
Penalty EPA
-9.53
-13.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+47.3
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
23
1
EPA / Rush
26
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
11
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
6
17
Eagles Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
6
28
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U