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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ falcons week 11, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
5-4
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
23
ATLFalcons
5-4
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
7
17
Falcons
7
6
10
0
23

Spread

TEN logo
ATL logo
6
P

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
298
432
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
5.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.11
Passing Yards
257
--
Comp/Att
22/44(50%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.57
Rushing Yards
41
116
Rush Attempts
14
36
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
57%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.25
-5.18
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.41
--
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
86
55
Penalty EPA
-11.69
-8.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
01/16
2.8
68
09/11
1.1
61
09/18
7.3
91
09/25
5.7
85
10/02
2.9
72
10/09
-1.1
43
10/23
-7.5
8
10/30
0.6
56
11/06
3.2
73
11/13
-0.1
51
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
01/15
-5.1
18
09/11
-2.5
34
09/18
-1.8
37
09/25
-1.3
42
10/02
6.1
86
10/09
-4.2
24
10/16
2.0
66
10/23
-3.1
31
11/06
1.3
62
11/13
3.6
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Titans logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
28
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
5
8
Falcons Offense vs Titans Defense
Falcons logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
23
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
13
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-2
L
L
U
09/18
13
W
W
U
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
18
W
W
O
10/09
-21
L
L
O
10/23
-34
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
27
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
-27
L
L
O
09/11
-18
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
2
W
L
O
10/09
-11
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
24
W
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U