TENTitans
5-4
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
5-4
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
7
17
Falcons
7
6
10
0
23
Spread
6
P
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
432
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
5.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.11
Passing Yards
257
--
Comp/Att
22/44(50%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.57
Rushing Yards
41
116
Rush Attempts
14
36
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
57%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.25
-5.18
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.41
--
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
86
55
Penalty EPA
-11.69
-8.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
5
8
Falcons Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
12
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
9
17
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
13
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U