TENTitans
0-1
37
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
10 mph
16
JAXJaguars
1-0
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
17
14
37
Jaguars
3
0
0
13
16
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
310
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
6.1
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.24
Passing Yards
211
211
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.30
Rushing Yards
179
99
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.98
-12.71
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-12
Sack EPA
-1.72
-6.40
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
70
99
Penalty EPA
-6.29
-9.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-8.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
-25.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
11
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U