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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jaguars week 4, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TEN logo
TENTitans
0-3
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
5 mph
37
JAXJaguars
1-2
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
6
8
17
Jaguars
10
17
3
7
37

Spread

JAX logo
+3

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
381
442
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
5.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.24
Passing Yards
--
305
Comp/Att
29/49(59%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.38
Rushing Yards
97
137
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.15
-4.69
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-2.43
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
68
30
Penalty EPA
-9.24
-2.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
-52.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Collins headshot

K. Collins

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
11/23
1.0
59
11/27
-2.5
31
12/07
-1.4
41
12/14
-4.8
17
12/21
4.9
83
12/28
-5.0
15
01/10
1.5
62
09/10
1.9
62
09/20
0.1
50
09/27
-7.8
8
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
11/16
-7.9
7
11/23
-2.4
32
12/01
0.7
57
12/07
-5.0
16
12/14
5.0
84
12/18
4.7
82
12/28
-1.3
42
09/13
-3.0
30
09/20
-0.3
47
09/27
4.1
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
2
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11

EPA

EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
1
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
18
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-21
L
L
P
11/27
37
W
W
P
12/07
19
W
W
P
12/14
-1
L
L
P
12/21
17
W
W
P
12/28
-23
L
L
P
01/10
-3
L
L
P
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/20
-3
L
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-10
L
L
P
11/23
-18
L
L
P
12/01
-13
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/18
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O