TENTitans
0-3
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
5 mph
37
JAXJaguars
1-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
6
8
17
Jaguars
10
17
3
7
37
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
442
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
5.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.24
Passing Yards
--
305
Comp/Att
29/49(59%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.38
Rushing Yards
97
137
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.15
-4.69
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-2.43
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
68
30
Penalty EPA
-9.24
-2.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
-52.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
18
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-1-7
O/U