TENTitans
2-2
37
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
11 mph
19
JAXJaguars
0-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
1
17
7
6
31
Jaguars
6
7
0
6
19
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
454
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.11
Passing Yards
184
256
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.23
Rushing Yards
184
198
Rush Attempts
36
31
Yards / Rush
5.1
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
45%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.77
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-17
Sack EPA
-4.09
-3.58
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
44
33
Penalty EPA
-6.50
-4.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-160
Home nfelo
1,343
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+30.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-0.6
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-8.6
Market Regression
-3.9
Final Difference
-128.1
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
27
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U