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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jaguars week 5, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
2-2
37
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
11 mph
19
JAXJaguars
0-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
1
17
7
6
31
Jaguars
6
7
0
6
19

Spread

TEN logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
368
454
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.11
Passing Yards
184
256
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.23
Rushing Yards
184
198
Rush Attempts
36
31
Yards / Rush
5.1
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
45%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.77
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-17
Sack EPA
-4.09
-3.58
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
44
33
Penalty EPA
-6.50
-4.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model67.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-162
Home nfelo
1,340
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-0.6
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-8.6
Market Regression
-3.3
Final Difference
-128.5
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Value
Ptile
12/06
3.6
71
12/13
1.1
52
12/20
9.4
95
12/27
-2.8
25
01/03
3.1
67
01/10
-1.6
33
09/12
-5.1
19
09/19
2.4
70
09/26
1.9
66
10/03
-5.3
18
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29
09/19
-8.8
6
09/26
-3.5
27
09/30
2.0
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22

EPA

EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
10
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
27
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
21
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
28
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
-26
L
L
O
01/03
3
W
L
O
01/10
-7
L
L
U
09/12
-25
L
L
U
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
9
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-2
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
P
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/27
-24
L
L
O
01/03
-14
L
W
U
09/12
-16
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/26
-12
L
L
U
09/30
-3
L
W
U