TENTitans
2-7
13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
5 mph
19
JAXJaguars
3-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
7
0
13
Jaguars
0
6
3
10
19
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
308
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.11
Passing Yards
212
218
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.05
Rushing Yards
104
90
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.40
-9.50
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-5.86
-5.49
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
59
88
Penalty EPA
-5.13
-9.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+22.9
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
31
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
15
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
32
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U