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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jaguars week 12, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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TEN logo
TENTitans
4-6
19
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
4 mph
24
JAXJaguars
1-9
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
3
10
19
Jaguars
7
0
7
10
24

Spread

JAX logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
360
321
Total Plays
70
60
Yards / Play
5.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.10
Passing Yards
250
221
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.05
Rushing Yards
110
100
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.63
-5.43
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-11
-40
Sack EPA
-2.21
-11.20
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
42
30
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-3.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,324
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
-3.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+33.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.6
53
09/16
-1.7
38
09/23
11.1
98
09/30
-5.7
14
11/11
0.1
51
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+33.7
Value
Ptile
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-6.6
11
12/12
-9.9
4
12/19
2.2
63
12/26
-1.0
42
01/02
-9.7
4
09/12
9.1
96
09/18
-4.8
20
09/25
-1.5
40
10/02
-6.1
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30

EPA

EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
23
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23

EPA

EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
27
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-21
L
L
U
09/16
-28
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-23
L
L
U
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
O
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/04
-31
L
L
O
11/11
34
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
U
09/30
-17
L
L
U
10/07
-38
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-9
L
W
U
11/04
-17
L
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/18
-6
L
W
O