TENTitans
4-6
19
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
4 mph
24
JAXJaguars
1-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
3
10
19
Jaguars
7
0
7
10
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
321
Total Plays
70
60
Yards / Play
5.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.10
Passing Yards
250
221
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.05
Rushing Yards
110
100
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.63
-5.43
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-11
-40
Sack EPA
-2.21
-11.20
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
42
30
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,325
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
-3.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+33.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+33.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
28
27
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U