TENTitans
8-6
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
67°F
5 mph
38
JAXJaguars
2-12
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
3
7
17
Jaguars
10
9
6
7
32
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
415
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
3.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.16
Passing Yards
205
331
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.40
Rushing Yards
58
84
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.84
-5.00
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-3.15
-2.76
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
49
45
Penalty EPA
-5.55
-3.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-22.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
25
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U