TENTitans
3-9
8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
5 mph
30
NYJJets
7-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
8
0
8
Jets
10
17
0
3
30
Spread
-8
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
439
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
5.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.16
Passing Yards
268
256
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.30
Rushing Yards
24
183
Rush Attempts
13
34
Yards / Rush
1.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
--
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
21%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.52
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-47
-7
Sack EPA
-8.15
-2.05
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
20
Penalty EPA
-1.22
-2.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+92.2
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+20.8
Away QB Adjustment
+30.4
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
25
2
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
25
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
5
1
Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
23
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U