TENTitans
6-3
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
11 mph
17
GBPackers
4-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
6
7
27
Packers
6
0
11
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
273
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
320
217
Comp/Att
24/29(83%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
11.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.60
+0.07
Rushing Yards
88
56
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.40
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-5.19
-1.08
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
26
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
10
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U