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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ packers week 11, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
6-3
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
11 mph
17
GBPackers
4-6
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
6
7
27
Packers
6
0
11
0
17

Spread

TEN logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
408
273
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
320
217
Comp/Att
24/29(83%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
11.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.60
+0.07
Rushing Yards
88
56
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.40
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-5.19
-1.08
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Value
Ptile
01/02
0.7
58
01/09
6.6
90
01/22
-6.0
15
09/11
3.0
76
09/19
-8.0
6
09/25
1.0
59
10/02
-1.3
44
10/09
-6.5
11
10/23
-4.8
19
11/13
3.3
77
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
-6.8
10
09/18
2.0
68
09/25
3.9
80
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
1.5
63
10/16
-2.6
31
10/23
1.7
65
10/30
1.0
59
11/06
-4.7
20
11/13
4.6
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Titans logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
30
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26

EPA

EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
26
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Packers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
1

EPA

EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
10
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
22
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-1
L
L
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/23
9
W
W
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/13
7
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-16
L
L
U
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
2
W
W
U
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/16
-17
L
L
U
10/23
-2
L
L
O
10/30
-10
L
W
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
O