TENTitans
0-5
0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
13 mph
59
NEPatriots
3-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
39°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
0
0
Patriots
10
35
14
0
59
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
186
619
Total Plays
50
77
Yards / Play
3.7
8.0
EPA / Play
-0.54
+0.44
Passing Yards
--
426
Comp/Att
2/14(14%)
38/45(84%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.5
EPA / Pass
-1.44
+0.66
Rushing Yards
193
193
Rush Attempts
36
30
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
32
Passing 1st downs
1
21
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.71
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.82
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
55
40
Penalty EPA
-3.63
-4.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
+0.1
Final Difference
222.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
13
9
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-3-5
O/U