TENTitans
8-3
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
6 mph
36
NEPatriots
7-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
13
0
0
13
Patriots
7
9
10
10
36
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
394
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.29
Passing Yards
85
289
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.45
Rushing Yards
270
105
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.61
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-3.43
-3.97
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
50
35
Penalty EPA
-4.99
-3.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
Titans+7.0
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+60.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-16.7
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
138.7
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
25
2
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
16
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U