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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ patriots week 12, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
8-3
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
6 mph
36
NEPatriots
7-4
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
13
0
0
13
Patriots
7
9
10
10
36

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
355
394
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.29
Passing Yards
85
289
Comp/Att
11/21(52%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.45
Rushing Yards
270
105
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
45%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.61
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-3.43
-3.97
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
50
35
Penalty EPA
-4.99
-3.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+60.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-16.7
Market Regression
+7.6
Final Difference
138.5
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
Value
Ptile
09/19
2.4
70
09/26
1.9
66
10/03
-5.3
18
10/10
-3.7
26
10/18
0.7
58
10/24
1.9
67
10/31
0.2
55
11/07
-2.0
38
11/14
1.6
65
11/21
-5.6
16
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
09/19
-4.4
22
09/26
-3.6
26
10/03
-0.3
50
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
-1.6
41
10/24
4.3
81
10/31
-2.8
32
11/07
-5.1
19
11/14
3.0
76
11/18
-5.2
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Titans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
14
3
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24

EPA

EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
10
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
25
2
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
16
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Patriots logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1

EPA

EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
7
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
9
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
3
W
W
O
10/24
24
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
12
W
W
U
11/14
2
W
L
P
11/21
-9
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/26
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
3
W
L
O
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
41
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
18
W
W
U
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/18
25
W
W
U