TENTitans
10-7
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
24°F
12 mph
35
NEPatriots
13-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
24°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
0
7
14
Patriots
0
21
7
7
35
Spread
-13.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
438
Total Plays
62
80
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.26
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
35/53(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.29
Rushing Yards
65
101
Rush Attempts
16
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
31
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
5
11
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-52
--
Sack EPA
-11.54
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-11.66
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+300
Home nfelo
1,724
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+81.6
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-14.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
21
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
24
24
EPA / Rush
10
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
7
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
8
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
23
Fumbles / Game
6
17
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U