TENTitans
3-4
28
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
021
LARRams
3-5
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
7
14
28
Rams
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
363
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
6.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.03
Passing Yards
165
203
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.05
Rushing Yards
198
160
Rush Attempts
35
32
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
58%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.26
-8.50
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-20
-7
Sack EPA
-4.36
-5.06
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-3.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-97.0
Home QB Adjustment
-76.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-76.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
12
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Rams Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19
EPA
EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
27
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U