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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ rams week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-4
28
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
21
LARRams
3-5
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
7
14
28
Rams
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

TEN logo
-3

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
363
363
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
6.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.03
Passing Yards
165
203
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.05
Rushing Yards
198
160
Rush Attempts
35
32
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
58%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.26
-8.50
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-20
-7
Sack EPA
-4.36
-5.06
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-3.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-97.0
Home QB Adjustment
-76.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Value
Ptile
12/02
-6.9
10
12/09
1.4
60
12/17
-0.2
49
12/23
-11.3
2
12/30
-5.1
18
09/08
-3.5
28
09/15
-2.5
36
09/22
8.0
92
09/29
4.6
82
10/20
3.6
75
K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-76.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
-7.4
7
12/02
-4.0
25
12/09
-3.6
28
12/16
-6.2
10
12/30
-3.5
29
12/13
-3.9
24
12/18
1.6
63
12/24
-7.0
10
01/01
-0.5
47
10/28
-8.2
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Rams Defense
Titans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9

EPA

EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
12
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
5
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Rams Offense vs Titans Defense
Rams logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19

EPA

EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
27
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
26
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
4
W
W
U
12/23
-48
L
L
O
12/30
18
W
W
O
09/08
7
W
W
U
09/15
-6
L
W
O
09/22
3
W
P
U
09/29
25
W
W
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
W
U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
15
W
W
U
12/30
-7
L
W
U
09/08
3
W
L
O
09/15
-7
L
L
O
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/26
-24
L
L
O
10/06
14
W
W
O
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
O
10/28
-5
L
W
U