TENTitans
2-6
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
7 mph
21
BALRavens
5-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
0
0
7
Ravens
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
210
312
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
3.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.04
Passing Yards
143
161
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.16
Rushing Yards
67
151
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.68
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-36
-8
Sack EPA
-7.75
-0.58
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
67
40
Penalty EPA
-6.59
-4.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+66.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
-56.2
Market Regression
+12.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-56.2
Value
Ptile
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
29
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
17
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
19
21
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
26
2
Ravens Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
14
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U