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  1. nfelo...
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  3. titans @ saints week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-6
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
28
NOSaints
4-4
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
10
7
3
8
6
34
Saints
14
7
0
7
0
28

Spread

TEN logo
+7

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
485
416
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
7.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
355
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.57
+0.42
Rushing Yards
112
61
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
19
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
38%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+2.13
-3.81
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
--
-5.85
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
52
75
Penalty EPA
-8.51
-8.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+239
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,351
Home Field
+84.0
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
203.3
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
09/13
5.1
82
09/20
-2.8
30
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
-0.4
48
10/18
-7.9
4
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
12/15
8.4
92
12/21
-5.0
20
12/28
-5.4
18
09/13
1.3
60
09/20
-4.1
21
10/04
6.9
90
10/11
-1.8
37
10/15
5.5
85
10/25
-1.7
39
11/01
18.2
100

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Titans logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31

EPA

EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
25
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Saints logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
1
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
14
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
9
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/28
-17
L
L
U
09/13
28
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-28
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
W
U
11/01
-14
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-16
L
L
U
12/28
3
W
L
U
09/13
-12
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
U
09/27
-5
L
W
O
10/04
6
W
W
U
10/11
-22
L
L
O
10/15
10
W
W
P
10/25
6
W
W
U
11/01
3
W
P
O