TENTitans
1-6
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
028
NOSaints
4-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
10
7
3
8
6
34
Saints
14
7
0
7
0
28
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
485
416
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
7.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
355
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.57
+0.42
Rushing Yards
112
61
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
19
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
38%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+2.13
-3.81
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
--
-5.85
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
52
75
Penalty EPA
-8.51
-8.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+241
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,352
Home Field
+83.4
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
208.0
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
25
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Saints Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
1
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
14
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U