nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ steelers week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TEN logo
TENTitans
-
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
9 mph
13
PITSteelers
-
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
0
7
0
3
0
10
Steelers
0
7
0
3
3
13

Spread

TEN logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
35.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
320
357
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.07
Passing Yards
234
321
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.08
Rushing Yards
86
36
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.08
-5.17
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-42
Sack EPA
-2.33
-8.32
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
28
60
Penalty EPA
-2.00
-8.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
+10.9
Final Difference
134.7
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

K. Collins headshot

K. Collins

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.4
31
11/09
7.3
91
11/16
1.8
64
11/23
1.0
59
11/27
-2.5
31
12/07
-1.4
41
12/14
-4.8
17
12/21
4.9
83
12/28
-5.0
15
01/10
1.5
62
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
11/16
1.3
61
11/20
5.1
85
11/30
-1.6
40
12/07
-3.3
26
12/14
1.6
63
12/21
0.6
56
12/28
-3.6
24
01/11
0.0
52
01/18
-1.8
38
02/01
-0.9
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Titans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
2
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
29
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
9
6
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Steelers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
11

EPA

EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
26
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
3
W
L
P
11/09
7
W
W
P
11/16
10
W
W
P
11/23
-21
L
L
P
11/27
37
W
W
P
12/07
19
W
W
P
12/14
-1
L
L
P
12/21
17
W
W
P
12/28
-23
L
L
P
01/10
-3
L
L
P
PIT logo

Steelers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
1
W
L
P
11/20
17
W
W
P
11/30
23
W
W
P
12/07
7
W
W
P
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/21
-17
L
L
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/11
11
W
W
P
01/18
9
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
L
P