TENTitans
-
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
73°F
9 mph
9
PITSteelers
-
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
3
6
16
Steelers
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
194
Total Plays
63
53
Yards / Play
3.6
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.23
Passing Yards
117
163
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.04
Rushing Yards
112
31
Rush Attempts
42
15
Yards / Rush
2.7
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.69
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.25
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-28
Sack EPA
-1.80
-6.23
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-8.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model70.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.4
Market Regression
-17.0
Final Difference
154.0
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
13
10
EPA / Rush
12
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
29
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U