TENTitans
1-0
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
030
HOUTexans
1-0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
7
3
0
8
0
18
Texans
7
0
7
8
6
28
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
454
Total Plays
67
79
Yards / Play
3.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
129
280
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.14
Rushing Yards
119
174
Rush Attempts
33
29
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.32
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-18
Sack EPA
-1.65
-2.71
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
70
40
Penalty EPA
-2.96
-4.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
-47.9
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
18
32
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
9
32
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
22
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U