TENTitans
2-1
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
057
HOUTexans
1-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
14
0
0
14
Texans
14
16
7
14
51
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
195
445
Total Plays
41
78
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.56
+0.34
Passing Yards
109
272
Comp/Att
10/20(50%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.0
EPA / Pass
-1.18
+0.53
Rushing Yards
86
173
Rush Attempts
19
42
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
33
Passing 1st downs
6
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
9
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-24.40
-3.47
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-6.21
-2.60
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
88
--
Penalty EPA
-8.46
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
Texans+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.1
Home QB Adjustment
+55.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
-5.5
Final Difference
-6.2
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+55.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
16
27
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
19
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
28
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
26
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U