TENTitans
4-2
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
010
HOUTexans
1-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
3
17
Texans
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
161
Total Plays
58
51
Yards / Play
6.1
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.31
Passing Yards
40
118
Comp/Att
6/10(60%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
3.9
EPA / Pass
-1.06
-0.42
Rushing Yards
314
43
Rush Attempts
45
18
Yards / Rush
7.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
10
Passing 1st downs
3
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.44
+1.48
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-34
Sack EPA
-4.25
-5.44
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-4.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
-55.6
Market Regression
+1.4
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Willis
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-55.6
No recent game data available
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
3-6-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U