nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 12, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TEN logo
TENTitans
2-8
32
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
27
HOUTexans
7-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
10
3
7
30
Texans
7
10
1
3
21

Spread

TEN logo
+8

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
369
260
Total Plays
66
54
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.14
Passing Yards
237
220
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.19
Rushing Yards
132
40
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
29%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.89
-3.25
Sacks
8
4
Sack Yards
-41
-27
Sack EPA
-9.17
-5.55
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
35
81
Penalty EPA
-5.55
-8.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
-17.6
Away QB Adjustment
-22.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.4
Value
Ptile
12/11
2.0
63
12/17
-6.4
12
12/31
-8.2
8
09/08
-6.5
10
09/15
-0.6
45
09/22
-5.4
14
09/30
-7.0
8
10/13
-4.4
20
11/10
-1.4
38
11/17
-4.2
21
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
Value
Ptile
09/15
-0.9
43
09/22
-6.2
11
09/29
4.9
79
10/06
6.0
84
10/13
0.6
52
10/20
-8.9
4
10/27
-0.2
48
10/31
-8.2
5
11/10
-7.2
8
11/18
0.4
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9

EPA

EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
29
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
22
21
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
26
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
28
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/13
-3
L
L
U
10/20
-24
L
L
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
P
U
11/10
-10
L
L
O
11/17
-10
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
6
W
P
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
09/29
4
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
20
W
W
O
10/20
-2
L
W
U
10/27
3
W
L
U
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/18
24
W
W
O