TENTitans
2-8
32
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
027
HOUTexans
7-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
10
3
7
30
Texans
7
10
1
3
21
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
260
Total Plays
66
54
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.14
Passing Yards
237
220
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.19
Rushing Yards
132
40
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
12
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
29%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.89
-3.25
Sacks
8
4
Sack Yards
-41
-27
Sack EPA
-9.17
-5.55
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
35
81
Penalty EPA
-5.55
-8.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
-17.6
Away QB Adjustment
-22.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-22.4
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
22
21
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
26
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U