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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ vikings week 5, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-3
7
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
30
MINVikings
3-1
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
7
7
Vikings
7
6
10
7
30

Spread

MIN logo
-6

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
267
433
Total Plays
69
67
Yards / Play
3.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.17
Passing Yards
215
258
Comp/Att
29/48(60%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.18
Rushing Yards
52
175
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.48
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
47%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.24
-5.82
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.78
-1.31
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
75
60
Penalty EPA
-9.84
+1.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-15.9
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Value
Ptile
10/30
0.6
56
11/06
3.2
73
11/13
-0.1
51
11/20
-4.1
24
11/27
-7.2
9
12/04
-2.9
32
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
11/27
-2.0
36
12/04
3.4
74
12/11
-8.1
5
12/18
-5.7
15
12/24
-3.4
29
01/01
-8.8
3
09/09
1.4
60
09/16
2.5
65
09/23
6.9
90
09/30
-5.3
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Titans logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10

EPA

EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
23
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
23
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Vikings Offense vs Titans Defense
Vikings logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23

EPA

EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
4
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
17
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-14
L
L
U
12/24
6
W
L
O
01/01
1
W
P
O
09/09
-21
L
L
U
09/16
-28
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-24
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-10
L
P
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
-22
L
L
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
7
W
W
U