TENTitans
1-3
7
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
030
MINVikings
3-1
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
7
7
Vikings
7
6
10
7
30
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
433
Total Plays
69
67
Yards / Play
3.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.17
Passing Yards
215
258
Comp/Att
29/48(60%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.18
Rushing Yards
52
175
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.48
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
47%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.24
-5.82
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.78
-1.31
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
75
60
Penalty EPA
-9.84
+1.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-15.9
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
23
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Vikings Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23
EPA
EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U