MINVikings
-
3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
5 mph
20
SF49ers
-
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
0
3
3
49ers
0
7
3
10
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
395
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.02
Passing Yards
177
165
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.04
Rushing Yards
71
230
Rush Attempts
17
39
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
11%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.16
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-54
--
Sack EPA
-10.53
-0.78
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
25
57
Penalty EPA
-4.35
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+4.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model45.4%
Spread Pick
49ers+2.5
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
-73.5
Final Difference
31.7
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
17
Yards / Game
29
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
24
29
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
25
21
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
6
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
10
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U