MINVikings
5-5
26
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
7 mph
34
SF49ers
5-5
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
12
0
26
49ers
7
7
20
0
34
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
423
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
6.1
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.10
Passing Yards
256
215
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.13
Rushing Yards
67
208
Rush Attempts
18
39
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.70
-3.87
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-15
Sack EPA
-1.35
-4.05
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
38
57
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-6.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+60.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.3
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
10
13
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
29
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
30
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
6
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U