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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ bears week 4, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-1
6
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
8 mph
16
CHIBears
2-1
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
0
6
6
Bears
7
3
6
0
16

Spread

CHI logo
0

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
222
269
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.02
Passing Yards
182
197
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.21
Rushing Yards
40
72
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.47
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-51
-7
Sack EPA
-14.41
-1.44
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
55
50
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-7.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
N/A
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model45.6%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
BearsN/A
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+50.9
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-34.5
Final Difference
30.9
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
11/18
0.1
47
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
12/10
-1.7
35
12/16
-2.1
33
12/23
4.5
77
12/30
-3.2
26
09/08
-1.6
42
09/15
-6.0
15
09/22
0.2
53
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
11/11
11.9
98
11/18
-1.8
34
12/09
-9.1
6
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
1.2
54
12/30
1.7
59
01/06
0.9
52
09/05
-8.2
8
09/15
-3.0
31
09/23
1.3
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
18
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9

EPA

EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
13
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
29
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
17

EPA

EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
24
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-5
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/10
-14
L
L
U
12/16
24
W
W
O
12/23
18
W
W
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/08
16
W
W
U
09/15
-5
L
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
7
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
9
W
W
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
5
W
W
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
09/23
16
W
W
O