MINVikings
2-1
6
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
8 mph
16
CHIBears
2-1
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
0
6
6
Bears
7
3
6
0
16
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
222
269
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
3.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.02
Passing Yards
182
197
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.21
Rushing Yards
40
72
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.47
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-51
-7
Sack EPA
-14.41
-1.44
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
55
50
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-7.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
N/A
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model45.6%
Spread Pick
BearsN/A
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-34.6
Final Difference
30.8
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
29
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
24
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U