MINVikings
1-4
19
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
16 mph
13
CHIBears
1-4
TBD
Soldier Field
53°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
9
1
0
13
Bears
0
6
0
7
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
220
275
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
4.0
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.31
Passing Yards
174
113
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-1.05
Rushing Yards
46
162
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.00
-18.92
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-5.37
-16.58
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
63
29
Penalty EPA
-7.97
-3.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,379
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
17
18
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
29
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
21
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U