MINVikings
4-2
23
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
11 mph
20
CHIBears
2-4
TBD
Soldier Field
62°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
1
3
0
13
17
Bears
3
7
3
7
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
305
Total Plays
56
59
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.07
Passing Yards
180
208
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.14
Rushing Yards
147
97
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.48
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-3
Sack EPA
-1.12
-1.87
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
38
Penalty EPA
-4.89
-3.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+73.6
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
-28.0
Home Bye Adj
+17.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
+21.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
21
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U