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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ bears week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
3-5
13
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
22 mph
27
CHIBears
5-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
22 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
7
3
0
13
Bears
0
14
6
7
27

Spread

CHI logo
+1

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
240
360
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.01
Passing Yards
170
230
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.15
Rushing Yards
70
130
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
11%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
9
19
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.09
-6.57
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
-1.92
-2.74
Penalties
2
11
Penalty Yards
--
116
Penalty EPA
--
-10.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
4.6
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Value
Ptile
01/17
5.1
82
01/24
1.7
61
09/09
-2.2
33
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
10/11
-2.7
31
10/17
-2.2
34
10/24
-4.7
19
10/31
0.7
53
11/07
6.4
89
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
12/20
-11.3
1
12/28
4.0
75
01/03
5.3
84
09/12
2.8
68
09/19
7.5
92
09/27
0.9
54
10/03
-14.9
0
10/17
-5.9
13
10/24
-7.5
8
11/07
3.7
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2

EPA

EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
14
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9

EPA

EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
12
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
30
17
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
23
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/17
31
W
W
U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
-4
L
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
5
W
L
U
09/19
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/10
17
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
P
U