MINVikings
3-5
13
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
22 mph
27
CHIBears
5-3
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
7
3
0
13
Bears
0
14
6
7
27
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
240
360
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.01
Passing Yards
170
230
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.15
Rushing Yards
70
130
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
11%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
9
19
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.09
-6.57
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
-1.92
-2.74
Penalties
2
11
Penalty Yards
--
116
Penalty EPA
--
-10.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
4.6
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
3
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
30
17
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
19
RZ Efficiency
23
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U