MINVikings
5-3
20
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
6 mph
25
CHIBears
6-3
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
3
17
20
Bears
3
11
0
5
19
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
312
Total Plays
64
73
Yards / Play
4.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
248
164
Comp/Att
30/48(63%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.03
Rushing Yards
22
148
Rush Attempts
14
39
Yards / Rush
1.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.78
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.72
-13.59
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-5
Sack EPA
-3.49
-1.15
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
46
Penalty EPA
--
-5.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+6.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.8
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.8
Home QB Adjustment
+38.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+38.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U