MINVikings
12-4
29
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
2 mph
13
CHIBears
3-13
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
6
10
7
6
29
Bears
0
6
7
0
13
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
482
259
Total Plays
71
51
Yards / Play
6.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
141
Comp/Att
28/33(85%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.33
Rushing Yards
141
118
Rush Attempts
38
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
13
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
55%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.13
-4.34
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.51
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
36
20
Penalty EPA
-6.33
-2.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model74.1%
Spread Pick
Vikings-6.0
Expected Value
+10.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-223
Home nfelo
1,350
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-128.8
Home QB Adjustment
-133.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
-57.6
Final Difference
-182.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
N. Peterman
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-133.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
4
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
8
27
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bears
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U