MINVikings
4-9
14
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
11 mph
42
CINBengals
9-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
7
0
14
Bengals
14
8
14
0
36
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
426
Total Plays
48
77
Yards / Play
4.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.42
+0.09
Passing Yards
94
345
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
9.1
EPA / Pass
-1.13
+0.48
Rushing Yards
115
81
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
6.8
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
24
Passing 1st downs
4
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
0%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
--
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-18.44
-3.75
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-20
-18
Sack EPA
-8.69
-5.26
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-4.19
-4.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
5
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Bengals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
14
29
EPA / Rush
20
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
24
27
Turnover EPA / Game
5
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U