MINVikings
2-1
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
61°F
9 mph
23
DENBroncos
3-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
61°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
10
0
10
20
Broncos
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
344
Total Plays
69
53
Yards / Play
4.7
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.04
Passing Yards
212
200
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.07
Rushing Yards
113
144
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.34
-7.75
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-57
-13
Sack EPA
-11.76
-2.93
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
63
40
Penalty EPA
-9.53
-5.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+202
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
4
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
4
13
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
8
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Broncos Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
5
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
27
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
19
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
10
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U