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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ browns week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIN logo
MINVikings
-
34
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
6 mph
20
CLEBrowns
-
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
7
14
10
34
Browns
3
4
0
7
14

Spread

MIN logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
310
268
Total Plays
63
60
Yards / Play
4.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.21
Passing Yards
85
179
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.29
Rushing Yards
225
89
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
14
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.19
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-25
-26
Sack EPA
-5.00
-10.05
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
38
66
Penalty EPA
-3.98
-5.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model59.1%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
-64.2
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
10/26
1.3
60
11/02
-1.0
45
11/09
2.1
66
11/13
4.8
83
11/23
4.1
78
11/30
-4.3
20
12/07
-4.0
22
12/14
-0.2
51
12/21
-9.0
4
12/28
-4.3
19
B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.1
85
11/17
-4.1
21
11/23
-8.5
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Browns Defense
Vikings logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
3
21
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28

EPA

EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
32
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
23
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
24
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Browns Offense vs Vikings Defense
Browns logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
15
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
28
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
7
W
W
P
11/09
1
W
L
P
11/16
-6
L
L
P
11/23
18
W
W
P
11/30
20
W
W
P
12/07
4
W
L
P
12/14
21
W
W
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
1
W
L
P
01/04
-12
L
L
P
CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
6
W
W
P
11/02
-10
L
L
P
11/06
-4
L
L
P
11/17
2
W
W
P
11/23
-10
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
P
P
12/07
-19
L
L
P
12/15
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-14
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P