MINVikings
2-5
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
5 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
1-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
7
3
13
Buccaneers
0
0
0
13
13
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
225
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
5.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.26
Passing Yards
235
159
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.48
Rushing Yards
97
66
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
40%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.79
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-2.16
-3.92
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
59
52
Penalty EPA
-4.21
-5.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-59.7
Home QB Adjustment
-46.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Value
Ptile
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-46.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
26
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
2
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
13
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U