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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ buccaneers week 8, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-5
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
5 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
1-5
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
7
3
13
Buccaneers
0
0
0
13
13

Spread

MIN logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
332
225
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
5.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.26
Passing Yards
235
159
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.48
Rushing Yards
97
66
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
40%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.79
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-2.16
-3.92
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
59
52
Penalty EPA
-4.21
-5.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-59.7
Home QB Adjustment
-46.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-46.4
Value
Ptile
11/17
3.4
73
11/24
-2.6
35
12/01
-6.9
11
12/08
-7.1
11
12/15
-4.3
23
12/22
-9.2
5
12/29
-1.8
40
09/28
0.2
50
10/05
0.1
50
10/12
-2.9
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
26
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
2
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
13
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24

EPA

EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
18
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
18
W
W
O
12/22
-28
L
L
O
12/29
1
W
W
U
09/07
28
W
W
U
09/14
-23
L
L
U
09/21
-11
L
L
U
09/28
13
W
W
O
10/02
-32
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
21
W
W
U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-6
L
L
U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/18
-42
L
L
O
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/05
-6
L
W
O
10/12
-31
L
L
O